Jan 222013
 

I haven’t been able to update the blog much, the baby has kept us very busy and I’ve been working on finding my next consulting assignment.  I have an interview on Thursday with a company in the financial sector.  My mention of trading & finance on my CV has peaked the client’s interest.  So it will be an interesting interview.

My trading has not been as good as I hoped.  I realized that what I was doing in the last 1-2 hours is not easy to transfer to Globex & the US morning session.  As a result I’m slightly above breakeven and that’s very disappointing.  I was hoping to take my 1 pt/day average and double or triple it since I was going to trade 3 times as much.  And that just isn’t happening.  Globex volatility is very low so now I’m not even looking at the markets during Globex.  Watching them all day zaps my energy and results in decision fatigue.

The US morning is a bit crazy.  I’m used to seeing how the day is playing out and going for a pullback for continuation into the close.  That strategy works well for the last 2 hours, but not in the morning session.  And all this reinforces my decision to do consulting full time and trade the last 1-2 hours.

Before I forget, the subject of this post is the financial transaction tax.  I just read an article on CNBC and it doesn’t sound good.  This tax is going ahead.  And it will be 0.01%.  That would be $14.79 round-trip for trading 1 ES lot.  That is 3.5 times more than the commission.  The tax will be due if either buyer or seller are in the EU.   In my opinion this will kill day trading.   At least for me.  The only way I see to be able to trade with this is to go for really big wins where the tax becomes a smaller percentage of the overall expectancy.  And even then, it will be very difficult to do.

We still consider moving to the US or Canada, not because of the tax but just for a change in lifestyle.  And that is one partial solution.  And maybe the tax will fall through.  The UK is threatening leaving the Euro zone, and they should.   So there is still a lot of uncertainty but we also have time before it’s in place.

 

Jan 082013
 

Globex has been super quiet since I’ve been home for the holidays.  I’ve sat in Globex trades for hours.  This is quite unusual for me, when I was last trading Globex, about 6 months ago, it was much more volatile and good for trading.  Now it’s fire and forget, and check back after lunch.  I got long at yesterday’s low and held for 1.5 hours.  I held through a zenfire disconnect (more on that below) and it was up to Euro unemployment numbers and my wife wanting me to take her out to lunch, so I bailed for +1.50 pts.  I was going for 3.  A bit frustrating to see it not move more.

2013-01-08_1111

 

Next, Ninja has a very serious bug.  Certain network interrupts (and unfortunately my ISP seems to have these several times a day) make it lose its connection with zenfire and the only solution is to restart Ninja or wait 30 minutes.  I can’t restart Ninja because Ninja is incapable of redownloading historical bid/ask data (like IRT & MD do so well), so I have to wait 30 minutes.  It’s frustrating to be in a position and not be able to move my stop or get out for 30 minutes.  Ninja will fix it only in the next major release.  I last reported this 6 months ago and we’re still waiting.  Maybe it’ll be fixed in Ninjatrader 8.0 sometime in 2014?

2013-01-08_1048

For those suffering from the same problem, you can voice your support for a fix in this thread.

Well 1.50 pts.  That’ll cover lunch and gas.

 

Jan 032013
 

I posted my November Results last month and now I have my December results.  As I’ve written, I believe I have a simple and reproduce-able (and therefore consistent) trading plan.  December was a good test to see if my results improved.  And they did.

I made slightly less in December, but that’s because I traded a lot less, mostly due to the holidays.  I took half as many trades in December.  One of my goals was to avoid scratching for small gains.  That totally messes up my stats.  I regret that I did do that a few times in December.  Looking at the trade list I see that I did that 5 times.  I remember a few would have been winners and a few losers.  So overall I think the scratching did not improve my results.  That is a main focus for January.

Other than that the trades looked ok.  Mostly 2 pt wins and 1.50 pt losses.  I’d like to get my wins a little bigger to get 2:1.  So that’s my second focus for January.

The profit factor went from 1.54 to 2.14 so that’s good.  Win rate from 54% to 69% but I don’t think that’s good (due to the scratches).  My average trade went from 0.36 to 0.50 so that improved.

What’s interesting to note is that I was roughly breakeven (-2 ticks) on the long side, and made all my money on the short side.  The stats for the short side were great.  So I have to study why the big difference between long & short.

Here are the results:

2013-01-03_1043_dec_pl

 

I’m trading during Globex & the US morning session while I’m looking for a new consulting assignment.  However I’m enjoying the time with the family and catching up on a lot of things I’ve been meaning to do.  I got the baby’s room all fixed up and repainted and now I’m motivated to tackle the rest of the house.

Good luck to you for 2013 and Happy New Year!