Jul 012012
 

I’ve been super busy lately and haven’t had time to update the blog.  Things should calm down once school is out.

Last week I finished -8 which is a bit discouraging.  I seem to have a good month or two and then a few bad weeks.  In order to minimize the bad weeks I cut size from 2 to 1, and for this week coming up I will only be trading a pullback setup, namely a pullback to a broken level.  In studying my trades, this is the most profitable for me.  The downside is there are less of these.  I have a lot of other things going on so I can set audio alerts and only come to my PC when there is a potential setup.  So that’s my plan.

Friday was very strange.  After a 24 pt gap up I just couldn’t bring myself to buy anything and I didn’t want to fade the strong gap either.  So I just watched.  A few other traders I know bought around 46 and made money.  I need to be more aggressive with pullbacks, they work far more often then one may think.  (And conversely, fades work far less often than one may think).

Friday proved once again that the market can do anything and we shouldn’t let perceived notions of value interfere with trading.   If the market opens up 24 pts, that’s what it’s worth at that time and any increase or decrease should be measured from the open instead of the previous day’s close.  Personally, the skeptic in me thinks we’ll fill that 24 pt gap, but it might not be done right away.  Could be tonight in Globex, this week, next week, next month, etc.  So I’ll just put my blinders on and trade pullbacks and see how that works for me.

 

  12 Responses to “Weekly Review”

  1. Mike,
    I’m thinking of starting trading ES. Can you suggest a broker & platform? Who do you currently use? I’m thinking of Mirus w NinjaTrader. Velocity & X_Trader were also recommended. I think maybe you’ve used both? Would appreciate your advice.
    Best, Rich.

  2. Rich – I highly recommend Ninjatrader because it’s free for simulator. Mirus & Velocity are both great. Velocity has cheaper commissions but if you’re trading on simulator that’s irrelevant so you have to look at how to get the cheapest data. Most brokers have inactivity fees so if you don’t trade x round turns you pay. It’s $25 at mirus which is actually pretty cheap for the datafeed you get. If you pay for IQFeed you’d pay over $60/month.

    Whatever you do, plan on trading ES on simulator until consistently profitable for many months. You may find that this takes a lot longer than you think. Possibly years. So minimize your costs as much as possible. I lost a huge chunk of my tradestation account just in data fees alone (I only did a handful of trades the entire time and their execution was horrible). That’s the main reason I closed it.

    So Ninja + Mirus = $25/month and you’re set. If you want NYSE TICK, XLF, or other things then you’ll want to go with IQFeed and you’re looking at $80/month approximately…

    Let me know if you have more questions.

  3. Fantastic! Thank you so much for the advice.
    Best, Rich.

  4. Mike – sorry one more broker question: did you chose RCG or Dorman w Mirus for clearing? Looking on some forums both seem ok, but better I choose the right one now…

  5. I went with RCG but it was a toss-up. I don’t know anything about Dorman, but I know RCG’s website could be much better. Velocity has the best customer portal I’ve seen and RCG’s is really weak in comparison. But other than a bare-bones portal, RCG is fine.

  6. All this effort and you just don’t see it …….

    If the eyes can only see what the mind can comprehend.

    Maybe the academic reductionists “Rob spain ” FT71″ etc have made you blind.

    Just an observation not having a go or anything.

  7. Peter – if you could elaborate a bit, it would help to make your observation more understandable. I’m interested to understand what you have to say. Thanks.

  8. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3fP9iAo_28&feature=relmfu

    The real lesson at 4 mins in.

    You however … have reduced the mkt to science, when its a social game, jim dalton tried to tell you this but on the journey of studying numbers to leave numbers your still on numbers.

    The mkt isn’t as complicated as you think.

  9. Peter, I also find your comment a bit cryptic. You say the mkt isn’t that complicated; would you care to elaborate? (i.e. outline what you think a trader should focus on).

  10. I’m not really prepared to spell it out, but …..maybe make you think.

    So you put on a trade, different prices cause you to have different emotions, you act out these emotions.

    You study the tape I study you.

    So in answer to your question adam you should focus on people “theory of mind”. If you have been trading long enough you know words and talk like retest vpoc, setup, vah, clvn ,level is all bull shit. Great for software companies brokers etc.

    Best of luck.

  11. Peter – what I don’t get is this: The futures markets are driven by commercial hedgers. who may be short or long term. With speculators taking the opposite side of the hedge. And throw in some day traders. So if we see someone selling, we don’t know if it’s a day trader who’ll puke if it goes 2 pts above, a large speculator who will puke if it goes 10 pts above, or a commercial hedger who will hold it for months or remove his hedge. and if it goes down that hedger might sell more (which always surprises people “why the heck are they selling this after a 10 pt drop), the retail traders will double down, etc. but this is all mixed together.

    you say “I study you” but we don’t know who is placing these trades and what their reasons are. if everyone was a retail trader it might be easier. but that’s not the case.

  12. umm

    Sorry you think like that mike, you just seem like a real honest hard working guy with a lack of ego so I thought I might be able to help you.

    Anyway if you have the time watch this. maybe it will open your eyes. If not no problem I won’t darken your door again.

    http://traderkingdom.com/trading-psychology-archived-webinars/2012-trading-psychology-recording-market-mind-games–numbers-are-just-a-language

    Pete

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