If you find these reviews hepful, please leave a comment.
I’d like to show the levels I use but I get them from different charts and duplicating them on another chart for the review is extra work. So I know the charts I have on the review are not the most interesting, but unfortunately I use MD for charting and Ninja for executing and so it’s impossible to show chart markers on MD. I could draw them in but that’s extra work too and I think it’s better showing actual chart markers. What do you think?
If you’re interested in Bund charts & review, let me know too.
While I’m at it, the interest in my order flow signals has been disappointing. I thought there’d be more interest. So I’m debating making some of the components of the signals available in an indicator that you can download. The advantage of this is you can use it on any market that you want and you’re completely independent. The disadvantage is this will only work on Ninjatrader (though it will work on the free Ninjatrader) and it would be realtime only. If there is interest in this then I will pursue it. In this case, I would stop using the signal chart for the review and instead I’d show the chart with the indicator. So lots of things to consider and I’d like to get some feedback on all this.
With all that out of the way, yesterday was tricky for me. Here is the plan I tweeted:
ES RTH Plan: Overnight ES gapped up and tested 1342 and then came back down testing the MC high at 1327.75.
U1 : Close gap at 1323 and possibly rotate to 1320 CLVN and then go higher. Here I want to look for longs at these two levels. If 1320 is broken then this scenario is not in play.
U2 : Gap-n-go. Get long on pullbacks, paying attention to 1327.75 and 1337.25.
D1 : Fake up and find resistance between 1330.25-33.75 (possibly 1335) and then down to fill gap and gain acceptance in friday’s range.
D2 : Down to fill gap and either 1323 or 1320 act as resistance and we get selling and fall back into MC.
I think up is more likely and those are pretty straightforward. The risk is not knowing if it’s a U1,U2, or D1 scenario. So I will watch resistance levels for clues.
I knew we had a down scenario and I knew I should not fade but rather sell pullbacks. However I was not able to follow-through on that and I’m a bit disappointed in myself for it. There were very small pullbacks and I found reasons not to take them. And then after we went quite far I tried a long. It stopped out but damage was minimal. I tried another and this worked, at least I got my first scale. But this is why fading is not good for me. I was holding long and missed the short (where I got my scale).
This seems to happen a lot to me when fading. First, not only is fading a low probability trade, but it causes me to miss the high probability trades. Now yesterday was truly unusual in that we had a huge range and I felt the R:R favored the upside. Which it did. But the probabilities did not. And every trade has both R:R and probability. Usually when R:R is really good, the probability goes down. And that’s what happened yesterday.
I don’t mean to make a big deal out of all that, the damage was minimal (-2.5 pts in RTH). But it should be a learning experience and reinforce my belief that I should avoid fading a trend day, even if I have a valid setup and even if it has gone the average daily range.