The plan for today:
ES RTH Plan: Today is rollover day but I roll over the weekend. There are lots of superstitions about rollover day but I’ve found it to be pretty straightforward the past several rollovers.
ES is back into the previous micro-composite which has very well-defined balance areas and LVNs. Those are the levels I’m using today.
We have a double gap up and are set to open at the top of the MC. This will be very enticing for shorts and I expect them to be active at resistance levels. If the shorts look strong I’ll look to trade the short side.
On the other hand, if bulls look strong then I won’t fight them but rather tag along, however I’ll be cautious as the R:R for longs above 22 is not that great. Can we bust through this entire range in 3 sessions? Yes. But it seems
likelyunlikely to me.
1332.75 is a very major level for me. Staying below it means staying in the MC and holding above it would pave the way for continuation up.
Some days everything just clicks and today was one of those days. My only mistake was not being patient with my short right after the open. Bears just weren’t getting it done and I lost confidence. After a little shake out of weak shorts like me, they rammed it down. But I jumped on and scored and then jumped back on the pullback. Overall it was a great day. I love it when trading inside well-defined balance areas.
Here’s my take on the signals lately: If I get the direction correct, the signals in that direction are usually good low-risk entries. I just have to ignore the signals in the opposite direction. I’m learning more about context and I’m getting better at reading the big picture, and it seems it’s coming together. Today four of my entries or exits coincided with signals. But at the same time I am able to enter profitably without them.
I realize the signals work well for me and they’re important in my trading. Sometimes a signal is the deciding factor of whether to enter the trade or not. I never blindly take signals, but use them as a timing & confirmation tool. But I also realize they may not work for everyone. So I do offer a free trial if you want to test them out (you can request the trial via the contact page), but I’m not going to be a salesman and try to sell them to everyone or convince them how well they work. In this light, I even debate if I should show them on my charts. The question is what to show on my charts. I was going to use my zones indicator to put my levels but in order to accommodate changing levels between Globex and RTH, I need to enhance my Zones indicator. That is a work in progress. The idea is to have my own levels into zones files, one per session (European morning, US RTH), so that I can look over previous days and see how price reacted at my levels. I think this is the most useful part of the zones indicator – it allows one to easily maintain a history of all their levels.
Speaking of levels, I am no longer subscribed to the eminiplayer levels & plan. I think they’re excellent for someone who needs help finding areas to look for trades, but I feel like I can come up with my own levels. Part of that reason was because I want to trade Bund, and when trading Bund I’m 100% on my own. So far I’ve been doing even better with my own plan & levels. And I think that’s true for everyone: We do best when we do our own work. So it’s good to compare notes with others you trust, but ultimately when it comes down to pulling the trigger you have to have total confidence in the plan and levels and the best way to get that confidence is to learn to do it yourself.
One final note: If you trade Bund during the European morning, let me know. I’m considering posting my plan & levels for the Bund, but only if there is an interest.
As always, all feedback good or bad is very welcome and I do appreciate your time reading. If there’s anything I can add or talk about that would help you, just let me know.