May 312012
 

ES was frustrating in RTH.  Here is the plan I tweeted before the open:

My plan: Yesterday was a bearish reversal as ES fell out of the previous micro-composite back into the recent one. The Destination trade is the low of this trading range around 1294.50. I have a bearish bias going into the open and will look for price action to confirm that bias. Important levels below are 1304.50, 1299.75, 1294.50. Above: 1316-18, 1321.75-22.00, 27.50. Right now we’re at the low end of yday balance and I’ll be looking to see if we stay in yday balance or if we reject it and probe lower. 1304.50 seems to be a magnet below.

I was really surprised to see it play out pretty much according to plan, yet I couldn’t find a low risk entry to get in on the move.  When I finally did, the move was over.  No problem, just hop on the next pullback after dinner.  My stop was too tight and I was shocked as I missed the rest of the move up.

 

On a side note, I’m testing trading the bund again.  The reason is next fall I’ll be taking the kids to their after-school activities and I’m not going to be able to trade all of the ES morning session.  At least 3 days per week I’ll only be able to trade the first hour.  I think it’s a lot of preparation for ES to only trade the first hour.  So I’m wondering if I could do better trading Bund or Stoxx.  With those, I’d trade almost the full day, only missing the last couple hours.  So it’s an experiment with the Bund, on sim until I can get a few weeks of data, and I’ll report on my progress.  Commissions are cheaper and it’s more volatile so I think this could work out well.   And lately you just buy the dip scheme.

 

 

 

 

May 292012
 

I had 3 trades stop out on my second half, that was a bummer.  As a result I didn’t get any big winners to make up for the small losses.  The last 90 minutes was a complete disaster as I was on the wrong side.  It happens but it still sucks.