Mar 242012
 

Today was a rough day.  I thought the overnight rejection at 95 was very bearish and when we broke Thursday’s low I thought we’d make it to 77.  I saw what I wanted to see instead of seeing that the initial support level held.  So I looked to get short on a pullback, which I did at the bull bear zone.  That didn’t work but I was stubborn and didn’t let it go.  The VPOC rotated up and I thought we’d get at least a pullback down to let me out at my entry or a small loss but I didn’t get it and took a big loss.  Several mistakes added up to be my first losing day in 2 weeks.  I got overconfident and when I do the market slaps me back into my place.

A note on the signals:  I’ve completed a complete rewrite of the signals and have tested it this week.  So far the results are good with V2 giving a few more signals.  I’m working on a comparison with the current signals and once I’m sure that V2 performs better I will switch it over.

The past three weeks have been very interesting by trading at key zones/levels with signals confirming my trade. My losses have mostly been when I deviated from this plan, usually by anticipating a signal, front-running a zone, or not being patient with a winner.  My mistakes have confirmed that following my plan works and I need to be more strict about following it.  Even if I only get 1 trade per day, that’s enough.  It’s really hard to watch the market all day and take only 1 trade but it’s even harder to trade every day and lose money.   My experience of the past few weeks has given me many ideas to update my plan and allow me to track my progress in following it.  This is all work towards being more mechanical which will yield more consistent results.  I’m still leaving room for decision-making but I want all decisions to be guided by checklists.

 

  One Response to “Review of Friday 03/23/2012”

  1. Hi Michael. A couple of things jumped out at me when I looked at your chart.

    1 – Your signals all appear to be counter trend and therefore only good for scalping. I maybe wrong, but having looked at your previous charts, this seems to be the case more times than not.

    2 – Look at the extremely high volume when price entered the buying zone around 17:45. To me this would be the signal to take the trade. You probably were not trading at that time, but there was another volume signal just after 11:30, again price was at a zone and relative high volume (for time of day) came in and price dropped over 10 points.

    Yes, I realise this is in hindsight, but it helps to train the brain to see these patterns.

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