Mar 022012

This wraps up the first week of a new format where I post about my plan and my trades.  Sorry to say my trades don’t always line up with my plan, at the end of this post you’ll see why.

Today I only traded ES & Stoxx.  That was really cool to focus, but I feel like I missed better opportunities on the Bund which was more volatile.  In the past the Bund was inversely correlated with ES/Stoxx and that made analyzing all three easier and more beneficial.  But now the inverse correlation is not a strong and as a result my analysis of the Bund is less helpful for trading ES/Stoxx.  I will keep monitoring this to see if it’s worth it.

Here’s trade breakdown for today:

  1. PLANNED TRADE: Long off my support level.  My support zone was 43-49 and I should have been more patient and scaled in the 2nd contract at 43 but I was already long ES and didn’t want to take additional risk.  I was quick to scratch this one when it wasn’t working.
  2. PLANNED TRADE: I was early on this one.  This is my achilles heel.  I really need to avoid this if I’m going to make serious money.  Being 1 pt early is taking on 1 pt more risk for 1 pt less profit.  That makes a huge difference.  As a result my cost basis was not good and I gave it up.
  3. Continuation of planned trade: After giving up trade 2, buyers came in and it jumped up.  So I re-entered at the same price.  That push was short-lived.  I sat through that one for another hour.  From 8:37-11:18 I was in this trade (combining 2 & 3).   What a waste of time.  I gave it up and took my girls out for a pic-nic at the lakes.  It would have stopped out had I stayed in.
  4. US RTH.  Planned Trade: Took a long but gave it up.  It would have stopped out.
  5. Planned Trade: Tried another long at the same area.  Took small loss on that one too.
  6. Unplanned Trade: By then I had given up on longs, I could see sellers weren’t giving up since Globex.  I sold the pullback to IBL when it was broken.  I gave that up when I realized we’d likely retest IBL.
  7. Continuation of previous trade: After testing IBL I re-added and held for yday low.  I will admit it’s possible there was some revenge trading here but I really wanted to cut down that loss.

So I didn’t trade great but the damage was minimal.  Overall I made $521 this week (not counting commissions).  That’s approximately 1 pt/day.  My ultimate goal is 2pts/day per contract.  I didn’t trade 2 lots on every trade so it’s hard to work that out but it doesn’t matter as I’m under my goal.  So next week my goal is to make 1.5 pts/day trading 1-2 lots.  Baby steps.

Finally, I’m looking for a few people to give me feedback on some automated signals based on order flow that I’ve developed.  For now it’s for ES only.  The signals are sent via Twitter so there is nothing to install and you don’t have to look at them while trading if you don’t want to.  The last thing I want to do is interfere with your trading.  You can look at them real-time or you can look at them after you’re finished and see if they could have helped you.  The signals do not take into account any context, it’s based purely on order flow. They’re designed for someone who knows where to trade and which direction but needs help timing their entries.  For many months now (these have been in development for a long time) I wait for a signal before entering a trade.  When I take a trade without a signal, I usually regret it.  So it’s an important part of my trading.

If you’re interested, contact me via the contact page and let me know the basic idea of how you trade, if and how you’re using order flow, and how you think you could benefit from some automated signals.  In exchange for access to the signals I’d like to get daily feedback on them.  So please only contact me if you have some time to devote to this.  If the feedback is positive, I will make them available publicly in the future.



  One Response to “Results for 2012-03-02”

  1. Hey man, read your comments with interest this week. You got a SkypeID or somewhere we could text chat during the session?. I don’t like twitter much since it feels like talking on a walkie talkie.. I think we are in similar places on our trading journey but facing slightly different challenges. I figure I could give you some decent feedback if you’re up for a chat.

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