Mar 012012

For the new month I will not trade Euro, Gold, Crude and therefore will only post real money trades.  Any trade not good enough for real money should be skipped.  I need to wean myself off of sim.

First day of the month started off.. not good.  I did not trade well.  At least the damage was minimal.

It was nice not to trade Euro, Gold, & Crude as I could focus more on the markets I trade.


  2 Responses to “Results for 2012-03-01”

  1. Hi Michael,

    In your plan the bias for both markets was long, yet all your trades were short – just an observation from the side. It happens to me as well all the time, what do you think of that?

    Regarding the ES trade at 3:33, Im not sure about your timezone, but IF this is 3 minutes after RTH open, it looked like you were “saved” by the news (which could have also spiked that to 77), what was you stop on that one? not 72 (which was taken out b4 the news)?
    (Again, IF im right about your timezone and trade times).

    Good night!

  2. ValYouW – Your question is a good one. In the asian session ES balanced below 63 so that had my bias neutral. It tested 59 area 4 times. I wanted to long on that last test but I avoid buying a level that has been tested many times as it’s less likely to hold. When we couldn’t break it we rotated up and I took my short around the 63 level. So I think this trade was consistent with my plan. The other two were not.

    The Stoxx trade was a mistake. It was expecting stoxx to do the same as ES (which in fact I should have expected ES to do the same as Stoxx) and the Stoxx short setup looked pretty good. It just didn’t work.

    The “news” trade.. I planned this one at the beginning of the US RTH session. I had several biases supporting at least an attempt at half gap (pivot failure & half gap biases) and ES had moved up over 10 pts off the globex low. My read of the volume was that the pro’s pushed it up in order to unload just before news. The 1371.25-72.75 level was in my plan and there I saw lots of professional selling and very bearish TICK divergences. That trade came within 1 tick of stopping me out before the news so I moved my stop up a few more ticks and decided the risk of holding into the news was only a few ticks and the reward was huge. It came 3 ticks short of my half gap target and when I saw professionals buying the drop I exited at market.

    I’ve actually been able to stick to trading with my biases pretty well over the past month, I’m not perfect but making progress. But I do allow exceptions when I get a low risk opportunity at a key level confirmed by order flow.

    I’ve found it difficult to trade the long side. Often the setups are not as pretty as the short setups. Often it just grinds up slowly. But I need to be more alert for long opportunities when my bias is long.

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