Feb 292012
 

Someone asked me why I have support levels above the current prices and if they were resistance.  What that means is the level will be resistance but I’m not going to short it because of my bias.  So I’ll wait for the level to be broken and then resistance to become support and then I’ll look for my long entry.  I hope that’s not too confusing.  Technically I should write “I will wait for 139.10 to become support” but it’s easier to just write support levels.

The alternative is to write overhead levels as resistance and levels below as support.  But that wouldn’t reflect how I would trade them.  I’m open to suggestions.

 

Bund:

Bund bounced off my 139.58 area three times.  In C period (starting with the 8am open for A), it fell short and so I didn’t trade it.  Then in G & H period it was there but I was in my ES trade at that time.  It dropped below the level but then quickly bounced back up.  The third time was in US RTH when I focus on ES.  So it was nice to see my area was support but unfortunately I wasn’t able to profit from that one.  This tells me that I need to be more flexible with my levels and do as eminiplayer does and make zones.  I need to work on that, I’m not sure how to be as precise as he is for ES.  So my levels will be zones but I’ll just track the levels and be flexible when price gets close.  The Bund is more volatile than ES so it’s not possible to be so precise IMHO.

Since Bund balanced in an outside day, the levels remain the similar.  Warning of risk to longs is still in place.  It has poked above it’s trading range and was rejected back inside.

Support Levels: 139.00-139.10, 139.58, 140.02,

Resistance Levels 138.74, 138.60, 138.44-48.

Stoxx:

Stoxx is still in the middle of its micro-composite.  Expecting two-sided trade until it moves up or down.  Bullish bias above 2495.

Support Levels: 2508, 2522, 2529, 2452

Resistance Levels: 2495, 2486.

ES:

Big Picture:

ES tested higher and was rejected twice, once in Globex and once in RTH.  I’ve been writing that I’m just not seeing strength by the bulls.  There is not much interest in higher prices.  We may have to go lower to shake out weak longs and replace them with new longs.  1387 still on the horizon.

Bullish above 1363.00., Neutral 54.50-60.25, Bearish below 54.50.

Support Levels: 1360.25, 1363.00, 1366.75, 1371.25-72.75.

Resistance levels: 1363.00-64.50, 1360.00, 1354.50.

In the smaller picture I will trade some smaller levels in between the big picture levels:

After I wrote this ES dropped below 1363 which was an important level.  But we must develop value below 1363 before I change my bias to neutral.  We’ll see if this happens overnight.  Looking at the daily it looks pretty bearish but in the past these one or two day drops have been bought aggressively.  Let’s see if that pattern continues.

 

 

 

  One Response to “Plan for 2012-03-01”

  1. The bars look like christmas trees LOL (sorry that is not really an enlightening comment but that was the first thing that came to my mind) 🙂

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