Today was a pretty boring session. The markets opened (European open) around my support levels and had acceptance there so I didn’t take the longs, which would have worked. I missed a good bund long because it stopped just short of my level. I realize that I need to be more flexible with my levels and come up with 8 tick zones so that’s what I’m going to work on next. But it didn’t bother me that I missed it because I’m very good about only trading at my levels.
I took two longs on Euro and scratched both because it was building acceptance there. It would have stopped out on the big news-induced move.
So my best trade was one that wasn’t in my plan. I didn’t see a good long opportunity on ES or Stoxx. I almost shorted ES just before the news move and that would have worked in my favor, but it was not in my plan and wasn’t even at a key level, just top of balance, so I didn’t do it.
However ES made it to a resistance level at 77 (stopped 1 tick short) and having not made any money this morning I decided my only shot at making money would be shorting here. The risk was small because either that level held or it didn’t. Shorts are counter-trend and as such they’re scalps. I put my target at 2 pts which was just above the current day VAH. I didn’t get filled and it bounced up a point but I was patient and then got my fill. The move stopped at 73.
I’m seeing a lack of initiative buying at high prices. There is definitely a loss of momentum there. Responsive buyers (like me) are still active at support levels but buyers are not willing to chase it up. I see this as a sign of weakness and a potential pullback in ES. 1387 is the main target above and I thought we’d get it before a pullback but now I’m not sure. We may have to shake out some of the late longs before we go any higher. The trend is still up and I’m still focused on the long side, even if we start pulling back.