Trade 4 – I misread my level on this one, I saw my alert which was 10 ticks ahead of my level and when I realized it I exited.
Trade 5 – This was the setup at my level. You can see in the exit name it says “Stop1”. Look at where my stop was:
My stop was around 10-15 ticks, I don’t remember exactly. It hit my stop but the simulator filled it +2 ticks. That’s at least 12 ticks of positive slippage! I’ve seen this a few times but never quite that bad, I’ve seen 3-4 ticks. So this tells me that the Ninjatrader simulator is probably not accurate for fast moving volatile markets like Gold. Who knows, it could have spiked down and back up and back down and maybe I could get positive 12 ticks slippage with real money.. but I think that’s very unlikely and I’m not willing to find out.
Trade 6 – Bund trade at my level but I exited because it was not moving and we were close to US RTH open. It would have stopped out. I wrote in my plan longs are risky.
Trade 7 – This is the same as Trade 3 in Globex. Order flow confirmed the resistance level and I took it for a scalp. I had no idea that would be the high of day as I was still bullish.
After that I had my goal of 2 ES pts/day per contract so I stopped.
For February I end up slightly positive on the ES. I’ve done well in the last week but unfortunately I had a couple big losses earlier in the month. So I’m happy to finish positive as that really helps emotional capital. A losing day sucks but it is to be expected sometimes. A losing week is hard to take. And a losing month is really hard.
I also completed one month of sim trading Euro, Gold, & Crude. Results are profitable but not much. Gold was my best market but now I know why – positive slippage. So while I cannot conclude the experiment was as success, it was not a failure either. I have to conclude that any edge I have in these markets is very small. I’m used to liquid markets and I cannot read “order flow” very well on the really fast markets. As a result, I will focus on Bund and Stoxx/ES for the next week. I need to do even more preparation than I’m doing and so best to focus on these.
Finally, today’s sell-off was not a total surprise. I wrote in my previous post that I was not seeing intiative buying and so the sellers seized the opportunity. But I expect more dip buyers to be active so the move up isn’t over yet. If we build value below 62.25 my bias will switch to the short side.