I just realized it’s been 3 weeks since I updated my blog. I didn’t plan on taking some time off but the last post was an important one as it was my update to a series that I had written a year before. After that update, I didn’t really have much to write about. I feel like I’ve said everything I’ve had to say.
I’ve been spending less time trading lately. I’ve been really busy with family, some home improvement projects I had neglected, and playing music. I was getting a bit burned out on trading and so cutting back a little has been very beneficial to me.
My latest work has been on reducing my stop size so that I can increase my trade size. I’ve been taking choice setups with real money and practicing the rest on sim. Results have been encouraging so far.
The market action the past few weeks has been really crazy. I’ve found that if I am patient and wait for a few choice setups then I do quite well, especially during the Globex session. With the volatility, getting 4 pts is less difficult.
The Euro is currently at a 62% retracement from its last major high at 1.45. This is a key area. It’s a go/no-go for the bears. If the Euro breaks above then this is no longer a retracement in a bear move and we can anticipate a retest of the high. ES has been following the Euro so this is a critical moment for ES as well.
There is a question about whether the greek debt haircut will trigger CDS activities. I’ve read conflicting opinions. The bulls think because a deal was reached yday that the problem is over but IMHO I don’t think it is. A 50% haircut is a major increase from 21% agreed on last summer. And no one knows if 50% is enough. And if it triggers credit default swap activities no one knows what will happen. Not out of the woods yet. Doesn’t mean the market will go down right away though..
Good luck with your trading.