Today was what I call a “stealth trend day”. What I mean by that is at the end of the day you look at it in hindsight and it’s obviously a trend day. But real time in the beginning of the session, it’s not so obvious.
The move up overnight provided several shorting opportunities, and in hindsight, even better long opportunities. I got it in my head that we’d close the gap. I just felt that business wasn’t done at the low, and I still think that is the case. So in pre-market I took several short trades. I stopped out on my runner a few times and that’s when I took a step back.
But then ES still kept acting like it was topping out. I took another short right around 30 minutes before the open, and added to it at 12 minutes before the open. But buyers kept buying. So I waited for some strong resistance levels which came 2 hours after the open. But those didn’t work out very well either. And by then I finally gave in to the fact that it was a trend day and sat out.
So this is very odd: Today was my best ES day in a long time. It was also a day in which ES gained 35 pts! Yet every single one of my trades were short! So much for avoiding fading right?
I can’t explain it really. I kept seeing weakness as ES came into my resistance levels and I kept getting short and making a few points. For some reason I just didn’t see the long. That’s definitely an area of improvement for me but in the meantime I’m quite happy with 12 pts today.
I still think we have business to do at the lows. But until the buyers stop buying, the market can continue going up. The value trend is now up so I’ll be looking for good long opportunities tomorrow as long as the market continues up. However if the market is making new lows I’ll trade the short side as well, but cautiously, as buyers could be waiting on any pullback into support.