Today was difficult. Not because it was hard to read the market but rather because the market moved so slow it required a lot of patience. I took a short on stoxx and scratched it as it came back to my entry. Re-shorted at a better price but scratched it and decided to give up on the holiday trading. I went and practiced piano. When I came back I saw that it dropped down and would have hit my target. That’s ok, I thought up was more likely at that point so I did the right thing.
Then after lunch I took another short on Stoxx and after waiting 30 minutes I scratched that one too. But during that time I saw ES was bottoming out. So I took a fade setup. Normally I don’t fade but this is towards the end of a move and I was pretty confident it would bounce up at least a couple points. It was a scalp for me as all fades will be (per Al Brooks). I sat in this trade for 1 hour. That’s not easy to do and I almost scratched it a couple times but I thought “what the heck”. I wanted to either have a small in or a small loss but 4 scratched trades was not going to do it for me. So I started playing my tin whistle, I’m learning a new song. While I was playing I heard the lovely “target filled” as ES hit my target.
That may not look like I waited long but that is a 15min chart showing the entire Globex session!
So today was an exercise in patience. After seeing my morning Stoxx trade would have hit its target I was willing to be more patient for ES. And it paid off. And I learned a new song.
+30 euros Stoxx
Not bad for holiday trading. Now I will do some stuff around the house (my wife is smart, she knows when the US is on holiday and what that means for my trading) and then pick the kids up early from their first day of school. Perfect timing.
This sell off on ES went farther than I thought so it will be interesting to see where it closes today and what it does tomorrow. My main idea is for ES to return to 1163.50 but I’m not willing to hold anything. Sellers are very active and any bounce is likely to be from a lack of selling rather than strong buying.