Trend days are my weakness. I’m well aware of it and I accept it, but I do try to improve on how I trade trend days. The problem today was that it wasn’t obvious that it was a trend day until the trend was over and it was balancing in the upper distribution.
I feel I traded terribly today and that’s why I thought I’d blog about it. First on the bund I didn’t take several trades. I’m not sure why, in hindsight they lookd great but real time they just escaped me.
Then on ES I fought the move up both in pre-market and during the regular session. My main hypothesis for today was that we’d retest the low at 1302. So every time price pulled up to one of my resistance levels, I was getting short. I managed to scratch a few and get a few points on a few others. Then for some reason I froze when it came to one of my levels at 21 and that ended up being the high (still have 2 hours left so it may be taken out). When it happened I thought yesterday’s high was next. It’s hard not to listen to our emotions when the market makes a quick move. Hard for me at least, the professionals jumped all over 21 and hammered it back down to 16.50. That’s 5 points.
One thing I need to improve upon is coming up with more detailed hypotheses including determining when I will be wrong. I need to force myself to come up with both bullish & bearish hypotheses. I’m already spending over one hour a day on my homework and it’s very tempting to take short cuts. The problem is the traders against which I’m competing are much better than I and they’re not taking shortcuts.
I also need to mentally rehearse my trades. Imagine the market moving up to my level and I take the trade. I’m not scared, I’m focused. I know I have an edge and that any single trade is not that important.
I finished the day right on my average for the month, however I am bothered by the fact that it could have easily been twice the average day had I not made my mistakes. Just the missed trades would have given me twice my average. Seeing the trend move up would have given me twice the average. And both of those would have made a stellar day.
Here are the stats:
I actually had one long – it was a total accident. Somehow I had a buy order that never got canceled, not sure how that’s possible since Ninja automatically cancels orders when a strategy terminates. I had to restart Ninjatrader when it froze earlier in the day and I think that has something to do with it. So if you restart Ninja while in a trade, verify that you don’t have any open orders once your trade completes.
So I’m sitting here and I hear “order filled”. Right when ES made a move down toward the lows just before the open. The proper protocol is probably hit the “CLOSE” button but I didn’t know if I was short or long. If I was short I would have held it in case we touched the lows. By the time I found out ES was bouncing up. I was relieved to see I was long and I immediately closed it for +3 ticks. That was at 1307 and the market never came back to that level. Ironic isn’t it? That “trade” would have made over 10 pts. But I was just happy with the free 3 ticks.
So has any of that happened to you? If so feel free to share. And good luck for the rest of the week.