May 202011
 

First I want to apologize for the lack of updates.  I do not think I’ll be able to update the blog daily as I’ve been quite busy with other things that were neglected while I was devoting myself to trading.  I’ve been taking long lunches so that I can walk in the forest, I’ve been catching up on chores around the house, and I’ve been spending more time with my family & other hobbies.  I can say my weekends have been 99% trading-free, a first in over 3 years.

So I’ll try to post less and make each post more useful.  If you notice I haven’t done any market outlooks or anything like that.  The reason is I take my trading one day at a time.  I have totally stopped my swing trading so that I can focus on my day trading and eventually work from day trading up to swing trading (holding winning day trades overnight for example).  In the past I had done the two separately and I think it makes much more sense to enter each swing trade as a day trade.

I was reminded about posting some reviews of trading rooms, that’s still in the works.

Today is a very slow morning on the Bund & ES so I took advantage of the downtime to make a video going over my recent performance. For a brief recap, I went back on simulator in January in order to work out some issues in my trading plan.  The results during the last three weeks prior to our vacation were quite good so I quickly got into real money trading after our return.  So far the results have exceeded my expectations and I hope to increase my size slowly.  So that’s where I’m at now, the video goes over this in more detail, in particular some metrics offered by my broker, the excel spreadsheet I’m using to track my results, and the Ninjatrader generated reports (which are not very accurate in my experience).

Good luck to you with your trading.

 

  4 Responses to “A video review of this month’s performance”

  1. Hey Michael,

    perhaps your sim trades are included in your Ninja stats which leads to the discrepancies.
    Anyway, long lunch times are great. I have at least 2 times a week at least 2,5 hours breaks for running my 15 km or cycling. It seems you do not live in the center of Paris? Prés des forets or whatever the french say 😉

    Great stats!

    Cheers,
    Markus

  2. I was showing real money only but Ninja’s perf is not very good. If for example, your strategy gets canceled (an error from the broker or you just accidently cancel it) then the stats are messed up. So I prefer to use my excel stats and the stats from my broker as they’re more accurate.

    I’m fortunate to live outside of Paris where we have forests on both sides of our city. It’s great for walks and just relaxing. Paris is great for visiting but I don’t think I could live there.

    Excercise.. I need to get back into running. For now I’ve been going on 1 hour walks which are a bit strenuous as there are lots of hills here.

  3. Michael,

    Excellent job on the blog. very good info. I’m also trying to improve much like you … and doing better slowly. I’ve been following FT71 for about 10 months now and I have good days and bad days but making progress towards more good than bad 🙂 I noticed that on you ninja stats you show you have a very high win %. When compared to my stats I only avg about a 50% win rate but I noticed your avg loosing trades are very large; larger than your winners. So naturally you would need a higher win % to be making $. My avg looser is about 39$ and avg winner is 78$ .. (with 50% win rate) I see that our avg winners are about the same but you seem have very high win % but larger losers when you get them. Do you have any advice or insight on if maybe I’m placing stops too close ? Did you have similar stats earlier in your trading?

    Thanks for posing your experiences in the blog. It helps.

    –Jason

    PS: this is trading ES

  4. Hi Jason,

    I had one big loss this month – I let a trade get away from me instead of stopping out. This isn’t in my plan and I made a mistake on that one. So that distorts the measurements a lot because the avg loser was mostly based on that one big loss.

    I’ve experimented with tight stops (4-6 ticks), 2 pt stops, and flexible stops and so far I seem to be doing better using more flexible stops (say 3-4 pts). When I used 4-6 tick stops I would often get stopped out and then miss a big winner. I don’t want to miss big wins.

    Which leads me to the next comment: Right now my stops have been bigger than my targets and I’m working on staying in winning trades longer and making my winners bigger. That’s a work in progress and adding an extra contract will make that easier (more opportunities to scale out). I had several 4+ pt winners this week including one for 10 pts.

    My win rate is pretty high and I think that is due to me having a really good read on the market and being able to determine which direction is most likely. I’m quite surprised that I haven’t had a losing day this month. I know one is coming but as long as it’s not bigger than 1-2 days (ideally 1) then I’ll still be ok.

    If you have roughly 2:1 ratio on winners to losers and a 50% win rate that is excellent. I would be very cautious to change anything. It sounds like your current stats are enough for you to make a very nice income. I would suggest considering slowly increasing size and seeing if you can scale up your results. The huge advantage for you is that by having a very small risk you can trade a large size while remaining within normal risk tolorance for your account (say 1%). With my approach I wouldn’t be able to trade as large of a size. I hope with more experience I will be able to cut losers quicker and hold on to winners longer. That’s the ultimate goal. 🙂

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