Apr 292011
 

desert view  Results for Friday April 29, 2011

Desert View, Grand Canyon South Rim

This is one of my favorite views of the Grand Canyon.  You can see the Colorado River in the distance.

Today’s trading was a bit boring.  I totally forgot about the “royal wedding” (I really dislike all that royal stuff) and didn’t realize there was a bank holiday in the UK and that it would impact trading.  I only took two trades on the Bund, the first was me forcing a trade and that didn’t work.  The second was a good setup off yday VPOC and that made up for the previous loss.

ES trading was pretty good despite the fact that the market was very calm.

Have a great weekend!

Apr 282011
 

We got back to Paris yesterday after a great vacation.  I got myself mixed up with some horse thieves and got myself arrested in Williams, AZ but I managed to escape and we hid out at the Grand Canyon.

I will write a bit more about the trip later.  Today was my first day trading.  During the trip I had a lot of time to think about my trading and come up with my plan for profitability.  My previous 3 weeks before the trip were profitable so I just need to confirm that now and I’m ready for real money.

I am thinking about posting my results good or bad on the blog so others who are interested can follow along.  Ninjatrader messes up my trades when I have two setups going simulataneously, so I need to make another spreadsheet to track this, but the totals are correct.  Here’s the results from today and I’ll try to make this more formal for future postings.  As I’ve been trading on sim for a while, the goal is simply to demonstrate consistency and build confidence.  In the past, “consistency” has been a few days and then a big surprise!  So now consistency is weeks.  I want to be prepared and very confidence when I go back to real money.

ES:

Bund:

I’m tracking each setup separately for each market, so I’m not concerned that the Scalp setup is not performing as well as the others.  I’m just collecting data.

Apr 022011
 

I haven’t been blogging much.  I guess I got a bit “burnt out” and need a break.  That break will come with a vacation to see my family in the US later next week.  We’ll start in Phoenix, AZ and then my wife & I will leave the kids with grandma and we’ll head to Las Vegas.  After that my parents will join us for Grand Canyon and time & weather permitting a few other parks such as Bryce Canyon and/or Sedona.  After that we’ll spend Easter back in Phoenix with family before heading home.

I’ve been very active during trading hours and outside of trading hours I’ve been working on an indicator I plan to release soon.  I was hoping to have an alpha version out before we leave but I don’t think it’s ready yet so that will have to be postponed until May.

My trading has gone well, this was my third consecutive profitable week.  I think I’ve settled down into something I can do.  It’s very similar to what I was doing before I got heavily into the FT71.  In the end, trying to trade like FT71 didn’t help my trading so I’m now kind of doing a mix of what he does and what I was doing last year.  And that seems to work for me.  I think everyone has to find what works best for them.

I’ve got 4 basic ideas that I’m using:

  1. Fading moves to S/R levels
  2. Entering on pullbacks to S/R levels
  3. Scalping based on order flow
  4. Very contextual Market Profile trades (using 30 minute chart)

I’m actually cutting back on the first one (Fading).  I used to do this extensively and now it’s becoming a smaller part of my trading.  I think that’s a good thing.  Entering on pullbacks is safer IMHO.  Scalping is a new thing and I still need some practice.  It mainly keeps me from falling asleep while waiting for other setups.  And finally the Market Profile type trades – these are inspired from Dalton’s work.  I have actually done surprisingly well with it.  An example is going with a move out of balance.  Before I was always fading these.  But now I find if I have a good read on the market (CONTEXT!) then a move outside of balance supported by context is a good trade.

If I weren’t very distracted by an upcoming trip & last minute preparations, I’d trade real money next week.  But I have enough pressure right now.  And by trading on sim I’m building confidence.  I plan to blog about that soon.  It has been very difficult yet very enlightening trading entirely on simulator this year.  My plan is to stay on sim and not risk a few bad days just before our trip – I’d hate to spend a 15 hour flight wondering why after 3 weeks profitable sim trading I didn’t make money trading real.  I’ll save some money for Vegas (where I’m guaranteed to lose it!).  I don’t know about everyone else but I used to gamble a lot in Vegas (living only 1 hour away by plane made that possible) but now that I’ve learned about trading I don’t think I can “gamble” in Vegas any more.  What’s the point in gambling when I know the house has the edge?  It’s the same in trading – don’t do it if you don’t have a proven edge.  And by proven I mean a good track record on simulator.  So I’ll probably play a few hands of Black Jack just for fun.  The odds are close to 50/50 so I find it to be the game where my money lasts the longest.  As long as the free drinks cover my table losses I am OK with it.  My wife doesn’t play so I’ll have to play two hands in order to reserve a seat for her.  She doesn’t drink either.  Hmmm..  Going to be fun!

Anyway, I haven’t been active on the blog & forums for two reasons:  Prior to the last few weeks I was changing things around and trying different ideas, and for the past few weeks I’ve wanted to see if it worked.  If I continue doing well on my return then I hope to go back to showing trades and discussing some of my ideas.

I have many ideas that I’d like to write about and I’ll try to schedule some of those so that the blog doesn’t go several weeks without an update.  One of the things I want to write about is I did trials of two Market Profile trading rooms recently and I was really surprised with the experience and I think you will be too.  Let’s just say if you’re contemplating joining a trading room, coaching, or mentoring service , you may want to wait to hear my story.