This was a tough week so let’s review.
Over Christmas I wrote up a new trading plan, practiced it with market replay using days from earlier December and practiced live a few days during the holidays. I was not prepared for the large volatility of the US markets this week. My 4-6 tick stop was consistently hit. The markets were so busy & fast that I split my attention between ES & ZN and as a result I didn’t trade either of them profitably. I often missed good setups.
Originally I added ZN because in December ES had many days where it just hoovered at the VPOC and there were not any trading opportunities. My idea was, when ES had no potential for a trade, to set alerts and then focus on ZN. It was a good plan and still is. The problem is I gradually shifted into trading both full time. And that was a mistake.
European Morning: Primary = Bund, Secondary = Stoxx
US Morning: Primary = ES, Secondary = ZN
So that’s the first correction I will make: If my primary market is moving and has potential setups then I will ignore the secondary market. The secondary market is only to be traded if the first is very slow and far from potential trading areas.
I was profitable on both Bund & Stoxx yet negative on both ES & ZN. I think this is because the European markets are much calmer and I only took a few trades on Stoxx (when Bund was quiet). Whereas the US was very volatile.
Fortunately I noticed this after just a couple days into it and I started trading less in the US session. I traded a little on simulator and did a lot of observing. This was at the suggestion of someone on twitter and it did help me. By not being in every trade I was able to observe with an open mind.
Here are the results: Note that this only includes trading done per my day trading plan. Swing trading & one non-plan trade are not included.
Note: Slight error in the excel, for Bund & Stoxx PL/Contract are shown as euros but it is really ticks with euros in the cell below.
I actually did a few mini-swing trades that paid off well and made up for my daytrading losses. So I finish the week positive $324 total. To be completely honest I wasn’t ready for the major volatility that we had and I’m just happy to have finished the week positive.
My focus for the upcoming week are:
- Focus on my primary market and not miss any trades
- Focus on trading near CLVNs.
- Use the composite volume profile HVN for my target. I want my targets to be at least 1.5x my stop and preferably 2x.
- Come up with an alternative to my “stop or target” idea. Study how I can scratch trades when it’s not going my way instead of letting my stop get hit. For example sometimes it goes 3-4 ticks and then stopped me out. I am not sure I want to scale at +3, I’d prefer to just get out if I see weakness (or strength on the other side) and then look for a re-entry.
- Not fight a strong trend unless there are signs of exhaustion.
I hope your trading went well & have a nice weekend.