I haven’t done a video in a while so I thought I’d go over my December performance on video.
Here is the spreadsheet:
I wrote “win rate ‘improving'” because my win rate was too high in November (86%) which was a result of me using loose stops and averaging down to scratch instead of stopping out. So in December I was actually happy to see my win rate drop to 75%. Interesting is the fact that it was 75% on Bund as well. That means I’m taking more stops and for me that’s really good news. I’m expecting a win rate of 66% for January.
Overall I made $779 net of commissions. I had a $1k loss on ES (I point this out in the video) and if it weren’t for that and taking 2 weeks off for holidays, I could prorate my December performance around $2600. That would be half of November but I didn’t expect to do as well since I’ve been working on tighter stops and minimizing risk.
So no excuses about it, not stopping out and averaging down can really hurt. And that’s my main focus for January. For the past week & a half I’ve been studying my past trades, practicing on playback & market replay, brainstorming, and reading other blogs, and watching other webinars. And it’s been very helpful to me. My plan for January is to use a 4-6 tick stop and just go for small wins. I tried this today. The markets were very slow but it worked and I made $235 trading one contract. Now if I can just keep doing that then I can increase size. Trading 10 contracts would make $2350 which would be awesome for me. With tighter stops I expect my win rate to be about 66% so even if one of those stopped out I would have still made $50-$100 and at 10 contracts that’s $500-$1000 which is still great. And the best part is I spent 10am – 2:15pm taking my kids to the swimming pool and lunch at a restaurant. So I know my goals are within reach I just have to stay focused & disciplined.
That last ES trade would have hit my 2 pt target but I didn’t want to hold through the PMI news so I put my target 1 tick below the Gap fill.
I finally feel like I’m on the right track. Minimize risk and go for small steady gains. Rinse & repeat. I’ll be sharing my results as we go in January.
One final thought: I want to thank everyone who has participated in the blog comments & forums. There have been some great ideas exchanged lately and you all have been tremendous help to me. That’s what it’s all about – sharing, collaboration, and learning from each other. The blog is time-consuming but it’s well worth it.