Dec 302010
 

I haven’t done a video in a while so I thought I’d go over my December performance on video.

Here is the spreadsheet:

I wrote “win rate ‘improving'” because my win rate was too high in November (86%) which was a result of me using loose stops and averaging down to scratch instead of stopping out.  So in December I was actually happy to see my win rate drop to 75%.  Interesting is the fact that it was 75% on Bund as well.  That means I’m taking more stops and for me that’s really good news.  I’m expecting a win rate of 66% for January.

Overall I made $779 net of commissions.  I had a $1k loss on ES (I point this out in the video) and if it weren’t for that and taking 2 weeks off for holidays, I could prorate my December performance around $2600.  That would be half of November but I didn’t expect to do as well since I’ve been working on tighter stops and minimizing risk.

So no excuses about it, not stopping out and averaging down can really hurt.  And that’s my main focus for January.  For the past week & a half I’ve been studying my past trades, practicing on playback & market replay, brainstorming, and reading other blogs, and watching other webinars.  And it’s been very helpful to me.  My plan for January is to use a 4-6 tick stop and just go for small wins.  I tried this today.  The markets were very slow but it worked and I made $235 trading one contract.  Now if I can just keep doing that then I can increase size.  Trading 10 contracts would make $2350 which would be awesome for me.  With tighter stops I expect my win rate to be about 66% so even if one of those stopped out I would have still made $50-$100 and at 10 contracts that’s $500-$1000 which is still great.  And the best part is I spent 10am – 2:15pm taking my kids to the swimming pool and lunch at a restaurant.  So I know my goals are within reach I just have to stay focused & disciplined.

That last ES trade would have hit my 2 pt target but I didn’t want to hold through the PMI news so I put my target 1 tick below the Gap fill.

I finally feel like I’m on the right track.  Minimize risk and go for small steady gains.  Rinse & repeat.  I’ll be sharing my results as we go in January.

One final thought:  I want to thank everyone who has participated in the blog comments & forums.  There have been some great ideas exchanged lately and you all have been tremendous help to me.  That’s what it’s all about – sharing, collaboration, and learning from each other.  The blog is time-consuming but it’s well worth it.

  11 Responses to “December Review & Focus for January”

  1. Michael,
    thanx for sharing your stats. You have been a consistent profitable trader for the last 2 months. That is a fact. A profitable retail trader. I am sure you will follow on this path.

    Regarding SL I try to put them always in relation to my first scaling targets (eg. SL 4 ticks, scales at 3 and 5 ticks). And they have to be placed in a way that I get some valuable information if they got hit. Eg.: If I fade a level and my SL got hit a move through this level should have become a high probability (but that does not mean that I will flip my trade).

    I am traveling the next days, so I say it now: Happy New Year!

  2. Hi Markus,

    I enjoy sharing and I hope it helps others and inspires them to share.

    Happy New Year to you too and safe traveling!

  3. I think you have the right idea of working out for a more optimal sizes for your stops, targets, and even the contract sizes as your will eventually want to trade more than just one contract. I don’t care about Joe Russ or other pundits said about what they think are the “best” trade management methods, because none of them could prove that they actually used their “methods” in real trading with real results, to me they are just making things up, and that makes it so much harder for retail traders to get to the truth of the matter.

    FT71 is the only person I know of who actually demonstrated his trade-management method in real time, and he has done that consistently for more than 16 months as far as I personally tracked, his results are stunning! The problem for retail traders to follow FT71’s trade management method is that most retail traders can’t afford to trade 3-4 lots minimum as the method requires scaling out.

    Tom Alexander, who also uses MP method, has done some statistical research on various methods on stops, targets, scales, etc., on a 8 hour webinar tittled “Trade Management When You Have An Edge”. My concern is, as stated above, these pundits have no prove that they actually used/tested the methods they are selling to the retail traders. I am watching the webinar today and I will share my review here after I finish watching it. The sales pitch for the webinar is at: http://www.alexandertrading.com/site/services/upcoming-seminar/edge-seminar

    I have no connection with this guy and I am absolutely against buying anything from pundits, I happened to know someone who had purchased that webinar so it was free for me to watch. Please don’t waste money buying trading materials, they are 100% waste of money. If there is anything from that webinar that I found worthy of sharing with the retail traders, I will share them here for free.

  4. Finished watching the first half of the “Trade Management When You Have An Edge” webinar. I played it at 1.5x speed, and skipped a lot when the guy obvious was ranting on garbage. I feel sorry for those 100 suckers who paid $995 for the webinar. Tom Alexander made 100K on this garbage, and leaving 100 suckers with absolute confusion and mis-information, they lost $1000 each and got their head all messed up. This kind of predatory practice is the main reason why 99% of retail traders have failed to become profitable. This was held in October, it’s a new version 4! so Tom Alexander has held 3 previous versions of this same webinar, how disgusting!

  5. Thanks for sharing your opinion of the Alexandar Trading webinar. I hope you will save some people from wasting $1000 on it in the future.

    I watched one of his free webinars once, the guy gave absolutely nothing (and I was new to MP at the time). So many other free webinars give more useful information than he did. I did purchase his book about market profile which was ok for me at the time because I didn’t know anything about MP and it gave me some ideas, but it’s falling apart now after having been read only one time and I think it was very over-priced. That seems to be his mode of operation – very overpriced. Smart on his part because he has less customers for the same money so that means dealing with less unhappy customers.

  6. FT71 took one of his seminars and his feedback was similar.
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72665&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

  7. Dalius – your link says the post was deleted or moved. Coincidence?

  8. Hmm, works for me. But anyway go to Elite Trader and search for the thread called “Tom Alexander As A Trading Mentor”.

  9. FT71 took one of his seminars and his feedback was similar.
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72665&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

    Right on! In this seminar he was supposed to talk about the trade setups and the specifics of stops and targets, but instead, they just regurgitated the mathematical formulas of trade expectancies, showed spreadsheets with the calculated hypothetical returns and drawdowns with various combinations of account size, expectancy, and number of trades, but are not specific to MP or any other specific setups, the same information is available online for free, and they charged $950 a pop for it.

    Like FT71 had said in ET, Tom Alexander is a faker, it’s very sad that so many liars and fakers are out there to rip the retail traders off, and it appears that the higher the price tag, the more they would attract the suckers (sorry for lack of a better term to call these victims).

  10. Let me share my little story/experience w/those guys. Couple of times I had long conversations with the owners of the courses. After chit-chatting about how tough this ‘sport’ is, I pointedly remarked that this is a performance oriented activity, not really intellectual endeavor…then..blah, blah about his success…blah…blah..

    And then I asked where could I go to see his results, he asked “what do you mean?”, I said I wanted to see a copy of his certified results, like bank statement showing at least 1 full year of making profits trading his strategy.

    His answer was “only my accountant and my wife can see it…”

    So, I gave him this analogy and asked him to tell me what should I think of this guy:

    “suppose I go to local karate school and teacher there told me his certificates, diplomas, medals and trophies he can show only to his wife and his accountant ….makes no sense, right?

    In this performance based activity (trading) certified profits should be proudly displayed to all students the same way it is done in all other businesses.

    The reason they’re not is that none of them have anything to be proud of.

    And those who have them (certified profits) are not wasting their time to call me.

    On both occasions they hung up on me. LOL…!

  11. kt_ny – Thanks for that link, it worked for me today. Must have been a temporary problem at ET. I’m glad FT71 posted that because I’ve always been curious what Tom Alexander is about but never was confident to spend the $ to find out. I trust FT71’s opinion. In reading that review I think FT71 was probably overqualified for the seminar. The seminar was probably geared towards beginners (suckers?) who haven’t read the MP books. And from a beginner perspective, if someone had no knowledge of MP maybe they’d benefit from Tom’s stuff. But anyone willing to do a little reading on their own would do better off without the seminars. And I think that’s the key point. These seminars work because there are people who don’t want to do the work. They want it spoonfed to them. And they think they’ll be able to use it right away.

    I have to confess I bought Tom’s book because I wanted to learn about MP without reading several MP books. i thought his book would teach me what I needed to know. While his book does give an overview of it, IMHO one really needs to read the Dalton books to learn it. Tom’s book is enough to get you interested yet still lost, so that one will buy another seminar of his. 😉

    Jan – great story and great analogy. I paid for a “course” once and it was a sham. I almost paid for another one and thank goodness I didn’t as I later found out it was a total scam.

    I agree about posting profits. That’s why I don’t mind sharing my results on my blog. So people will know exactly where I’m at in my journey. And I like to be honest about it, even when I screw up.

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