Nov 302010

The ES session was pretty boring but I traded well so I’m happy about that.  My bias was to the downside and I was quite surprised that ES went up.  Having forced myself to come up with a bullish scenario in my pre-market hypotheses really helped.  Even more surprising is that the market closes down towards where it all began!  How’s that for month end!

Here are my trades:

The first circled area I did not trade because it happened fast and I was expecting more movement to the downside.  Also the PMI was due.  It turned out to be the low of the day.

The next trade I took was at yday VPOC (naked).  I only entered 1/2 position because I didn’t have confirmation from the order flow and I expected it to test 79 which was the CHVN.  I dropped down but stalled twice at the open swing high so I got out with 1 pt.  Had I had 2 contracts I would have scaled out one and held the other for another pt.

The next two trades were on sim.  I did them on sim because they’re experimental.  For one I don’t want to trade near the CHVN at 79.  Second, they’re buying pullbacks in a move up.  This is new to me, before I was fading anything that moved.  Now I try to go with the move when possible.  This is a new addition to my trading plan so I want to collect some stats on it before trading it with real money.

Then price chopped around the CHVN so I worked on other things.  I took one trade on Euro that hit my first target and stopped out of the second.  I also went over my trading plan and some other things.  No sense watching ES and being tempted to do something stupid, even on sim.

ES closed the gap during my dinner break.  I think in the future I’ll set price alerts for major targets so that I won’t miss them.

I took two more shorts, first scratched out as it went up against me (+1 tick).  Then took a second entry but it was lingering around so I scratched it too (+1).  It eventually would have made a pt but I’m really going after 2-3 pts now so my scratch was good.  I didn’t trade after that, being month end FT71 was warning about a strong move into the close.

So as I’m writing this I look down at X_Trader and realize that I’m long!!  WTF!!!  ES just dropped 5 pts and I’m long????  Fortunately I just happend to notice it as soon as it happened.  I guess I left a long order on the DOM.  Another reason to like the Ninja DOM as it cancels all orders once your target or stop is hit.  So I scratched that trade breakeven.  I wasn’t going to mess around with it.  I’m really lucky because that could have been much worse.  I must always make sure I don’t have any open orders on the DOM.

I think X_Trader is great for scalping and it’s much more readable than Ninja.  And I like seeing my place in the queue.  Often this lets me be patient for a fill rather than hitting the bid or ask, which can save me 1 tick.  That can add up.  I feel like I can really read the order flow better with X_Trader and enter “with the edge” just as price ticks up or down.  However the ATM strategies on Ninja are very nice.  If I were trading a lot of contracts there would be cheaper commissions with X_Trader but if I use Ninjatrader with Velocity I could get $3.80 which is a bit cheaper.  Even if it’s the same price I’m still not sure which I prefer.  Maybe I will try CQG Trader which seems to have some features of the X_Trader DOM and the ATM type strategy of Ninjatrader.  It’d just be easier if I always hit the “delete all” button when finished so that it deletes any open orders.

Here’s the PL for real money trades:

The sim results were very impressive.  Hopefully I can continue that because it will greatly increase my results:

The quantities need explaining because my usual size is 2.  The second trade I thought I entered with half position so I added at the next level which was planned ahead of time.  I didn’t realize I had a full position on.

The third trade I had two levels I wanted to enter and the stop for the first one (6 ticks) was exactly at the second.  I was not going to stop out and enter again so I held it.  5 pts MAE / 4 = 1.25 pts MAE per contract so I didn’t have much risk on this trade.

So overall I get an A.  I traded my plan which was to take a shot at a short at the CHVN and if price went up get long on pullbacks.  I traded it exactly as I planned.

I’ll post the month to date results soon.   Also my spreadsheet that I use for the P/L is now available.

  8 Responses to “ES Results Nov 30”

  1. Hi,

    I see you don’t have the VWAP and 50% fib ret, it was a good support for a pullback buy after fading NVPOC @ 78 (kind like you did on Bund fading Friday high buying poc).
    See my snap:

    What level did you have @ 73.50?

  2. I do have the VWAP on my chart (which for some reason isn’t showing as I write this). I sometimes draw 50% fibs but I usually don’t leave them on my chart because it adds clutter. I won’t take a trade just on a fib, but I use it to look for confluence with LVNs.

    The 73.50 level came from a low at 2:36pm European time (subtract 6 hours for NY). If I see a long tail I will draw a level there but it’s a minor level and mainly used for confluence.

    The two cyan X’s are pullback buys that I did.

  3. I know you did both Cyans, that’s why I mentioned the VWAP, because in the chart you posted it looks like going long on a pullback to “nothing”, on pullback I need to see something to support the price (psychologically or not I need some line there)…

  4. I just looked at the chart. Here are the levels I see nearby where I went long:

    I agree, I don’t enter on nothing. Also not shown is another chart I use with a custom indicator that signals changes in the order flow. I often use it to help time entries.

  5. Cool. BTW, what determines the color of the bar in your charts?

  6. It’s a paintbar I made to detect professional (blue) & amateur (yellow) activity based on average trade size. The idea comes from the Better Pro Am Paintbar by Eminiwatch.

  7. I guessed it was something from eminiwatch…. I programmed his SineWave version for ninja but never really got the option to trade it (this was back when I played with indicators but did not trade…).

    Regarding Avg trade size, he is using Tick bars so the basis for comparison is same, but do you get same behavior in 3 minute bars?

  8. Mults – Yes it’s easier with tick bars but with IRT’s Volume Breakdown indicator you can get it for any bar type.

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