Nov 222010

Today started out ok.  I scratched first trade and got 1.5 pts on the second.  On Monday’s I can only trade the first hour because I have to take my daughter to her music lessons.  Then I came home and saw the market making the low.  I actually went long 84.00 and was happy to get a couple pts.  I didn’t realize that would end up being the low of the day!  If only I had more contracts I could hold the last one a bit longer.  Hopefully soon.

My last trade was stupid.  We were right at the DVPOC around 92.25 and I went short.  And this taught me a lesson and why I don’t do that.  I can attribute this stupid trade to me not having a formal plan. I got home 10 minutes before the open and didn’t have time to come up with any plan.  Plus I wasn’t here most of the day.  But those are just excuses, I know better than trading around DVPOC.  I ended up holding it for a while and scaling in at 93 & 93.75 and scratching it.  And that killed my expectancy.  For the first 3 trades, my expectancy was 0.62.  That is better than my average and since I scratched the first trade that is pretty good.  Then after the last trade it dropped to 0.44.  Money-wise this was one of my better days.

I tracked MAE today.  For Bund they were (in ticks) 2, 6, & 6.  For ES it was (in pts) 1, 2.25, 2.0, 2.25.  6 ticks is acceptable to me, but 8-9 ticks is the limit.  I think I could get better at timing my entry and have a lower MAE.  That’s why I got started on the DOM in the first place and I need to work on that.  The MAE is not good because I enter with partial and then add on another partial.  I do this when I’m not sure of a level and I’m not able to time it better.  Hopefully that will improve as it’s something I’m now tracking this closely.

Here’s the ES results.

Getting to profitability was very difficult.  Now getting to where I can have low MAE and big winners seems to be equally difficult.

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