I’ve been focusing on swing trading lately. That wasn’t intentional, there were just some good opportunities lately.
Today we can look at my Bund day trades. I’ve been a bit off lately. Tuesday was my first losing day this month. I made money on the Bund but I got caught long on ES right when the move down started. I finished Tuesday -$230 so that’s completely acceptable. Wednesday I only took two trades on the Bund and scratched both and only made 20 euros. I think one of them would have worked out. Today the Bund was unusually quiet. I tried a scalp in balance and abandoned it for 2 ticks, which is good because it dropped down.
The first move down went really quick and I was looking for confirmation and missed it. I’ve been using a new pro bar prototype to confirm my entries and that works great in high volatility but when the market is slow it doesn’t work as well. By the time I got the confirmation I was looking for, I thought it was too extended. That would have worked nicely. So when it tested the pre-market high I wasn’t going to wait for confirmation. Without confirmation I’ve been entering 1/2 size. My current size is 2 contracts so I entered 1. If I get confirmation at a better price I will enter second half. I didn’t so my position was 1. I was fading the unfair high here, guessing that we were going to be balanced. I say guessing because there was no way to know for sure. It was just my intuition that the OTF was not present. I set my target for the DVPOC and got 6 ticks. Notice how it stopped at the DVPOC & VWAP, just 2 ticks below my exit.
The market came back up to test again. This time I didn’t try it. Since we hadn’t visited the unfair lows I thought it’d break higher. It didn’t and ended up making a perfect double top (triple top actually).
There is an optimum level between taking everything and waiting for the best setups. I trust my intuition on these but lately I’ve missed several setups that would have worked. But then again I abandoned my first trade at +2 and had I not done that it would have been a loss. Developing intuition is really important and that takes time. How much? Oh 10,000 hours or so. Just kidding. But it does take a while. I actually think my intuition is too careful lately and I think my losing day on Tuesday may be part of the cause. I need to trust my “setups” for entries because my mind can always find a reason not to take the trade. I almost think it’s better to jump in and get out if I don’t get confirmation rather than wait for the confirmation and miss the trade.
So +8 ticks on Bund for +80 euros. I’m still experimenting with tight stops. If I can get my stop a little bit tighter without sacrificing results, I’ll increase my size to 3 lots and a partial position would be 1 or 2. Lately I’ve had several wins with partial positions. I need more confidence, and for that I need tighter stops.
It always looks easy in hindsight.