Nov 192010
 

I’ve been focusing on swing trading lately.  That wasn’t intentional, there were just some good opportunities lately.

Today we can look at my Bund day trades.  I’ve been a bit off lately.  Tuesday was my first losing day this month.  I made money on the Bund but I got caught long on ES right when the move down started.  I finished Tuesday -$230 so that’s completely acceptable.  Wednesday I only took two trades on the Bund and scratched both and only made 20 euros.  I think one of them would have worked out.  Today the Bund was unusually quiet.  I tried a scalp in balance and abandoned it for 2 ticks, which is good because it dropped down.

The first move down went really quick and I was looking for confirmation and missed it.  I’ve been using a new pro bar prototype to confirm my entries and that works great in high volatility but when the market is slow it doesn’t work as well.  By the time I got the confirmation I was looking for, I thought it was too extended.  That would have worked nicely.  So when it tested the pre-market high I wasn’t going to wait for confirmation.  Without confirmation I’ve been entering 1/2 size.  My current size is 2 contracts so I entered 1.  If I get confirmation at a better price I will enter second half.  I didn’t so my position was 1.  I was fading the unfair high here, guessing that we were going to be balanced.  I say guessing because there was no way to know for sure.  It was just my intuition that the OTF was not present.  I set my target for the DVPOC and got 6 ticks.  Notice how it stopped at the DVPOC & VWAP, just 2 ticks below my exit.

The market came back up to test again.  This time I didn’t try it.  Since we hadn’t visited the unfair lows I thought it’d break higher.  It didn’t and ended up making a perfect double top (triple top actually).

There is an optimum level between taking everything and waiting for the best setups.  I trust my intuition on these but lately I’ve missed several setups that would have worked.  But then again I abandoned my first trade at +2 and had I not done that it would have been a loss.  Developing intuition is really important and that takes time.  How much?  Oh 10,000 hours or so.  Just kidding.  But it does take a while.  I actually think my intuition is too careful lately and I think my losing day on Tuesday may be part of the cause.  I need to trust my “setups” for entries because my mind can always find a reason not to take the trade.  I almost think it’s better to jump in and get out if I don’t get confirmation rather than wait for the confirmation and miss the trade.

So +8 ticks on Bund for +80 euros.  I’m still experimenting with tight stops.  If I can get my stop a little bit tighter without sacrificing results, I’ll increase my size to 3 lots and a partial position would be 1 or 2.  Lately I’ve had several wins with partial positions.  I need more confidence, and for that I need tighter stops.

It always looks easy in hindsight.

  3 Responses to “A look at my bund trades”

  1. Slow market cause of no pending news – at least nothing which is announced.

    Cheers,
    Markus

  2. Nice talking to you on #FT71 thread. 🙂

  3. Nice talking with you too.

    Did you understand my delta example? I think I’ll write a blog post about it as it requires a graphic.

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