Nov 162010
 

Premarket the market was finding support at 86.50 which is a CLVN.  I weighed my options and thought that a gap fill was possibe so I closed the last contract of my swing trade at 87 for a total of 20 pts on that contract.  And then the market bounced up and I was proud of myself for having gotten out at the low..

.. and then this Ireland stuff hit the fan and the market plummeted!  But I don’t have any regrets.  I was happy to get 20 pts on that last contract.  Happy not to have a loss since my entry was way too early.  Usually when I’m that early I just go for a scratch.

And this is why trading is hard.  Even if you “know” what the market will do, making money is still difficult.  This is why there are so many analysts.  The analysts are really good at giving their read of the market and predicting what it will do.  But if they were good they’d be traders instead of analysts.  They’re two different professions.

Here’s my hypothesis:  The Euro zone news isn’t good, but on the other the market has dropped over 50 pts.  That’s a lot.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a bounce and possibly even fill the gap.  We can’t know how much of today’s selling was rumor/news driven due to Ireland.  The governments are going to tell us everything is fine and we shouldn’t worry, and then the bulls will be scooping up the bargains like an Abercrombie shirt on the Ross clearance rack.   We’ll see if it plays out.  We got a nice flush today but the absense of professional buying at the lows concerns me.  There are some pro bars on lower timeframes but that’s cheating..

  3 Responses to “Swing trade closed & potential flush”

  1. What are pro bars, Michael, what are the criteria? Something concerning volume?

    Cheers,
    Markus

  2. They show professional activity based on trade size. I have it on most of my charts. Blue/Magenta = professional activity and Yellow/White = amateur. Magenta/White = very strong pro/amateur. I used to sell mine for Ninjatrader but when eminiwatch made his available for Ninjatrader I stopped selling mine.

    I’m working on a newer version, still in testing.

  3. ninja must handle ticks and volume in a different manner because the ninja signals are more frequent than tradestation an in my opnion not as good. There is really no mystery, basically its the ticks on chart/volume, to get an approximation of average contracts per trade, professional have a higher avg. so take that and run a moving average and if th average is higher, pros and lower ama, eminiwatch has a switch so not to take all signals, only hh above o ll below av in x # of bars. I have been using osc using a variation of this for a while.

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