Nov 152010
 

Last night I looked at the COT report and also my DOT data which is based on small option traders.  Last week was flat for the COT report with commercial hedgers not really changing their position.  However the report was for the period ending Nov 9 which was the big bearish reversal.  So we have to wait until this weekend to see what they did after that.  My interpretation of the COT is still bearish.

The DOT data shows that the level of bullishness is in the range that is typical of market tops.  The topping process is a lot longer than the bottoming process so that has to be kept in mind.

Any of these taken in isolation is not very useful, but when combined with the recent price action, namely a bearish engulfing candlestick just above a previous high, it gives me a strong bearish bias.  A retest of the top is never out of the question though.

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