This morning I gave 3 hypotheses for what I thought could (not would) happen today. So far #1 is ruled out and that leaves #2 & #3.
Let’s look at my swing tick chart:
Today really surprised me. Yesterday buyers weren’t that interested but today they were very active. I went short at 1207. I actually went short at 1204 pre-market when it looked like it was going to hold. I thought the market would drop down before the open but it didn’t. Around 1209 I thought the market was topping out but that ended up not working out anyway. So my average cost is 1207. My stop is about 1216.50. The market is trading at 1218 right now but I’m not going to stop out because the move up came at the close and a move up into the close was to be expected.
You can see several volume patterns at the top today and 3 pro bars. This tells me that professionals are very active here and in the current context I interpret this as professional selling.
For daytrading I did quite well. I took several shorts and only had one loser for 2 ticks which went positive shortly after I got out, but with 15 minutes left in the cash session I didn’t want to risk it. With good reason as prices later went up to 1218.
Tomorrow I’ll be watching closely to see how price moves. I expect at least a little retracement into yesterday’s range and if I don’t see some selling I’ll look to exit the swing trade with a small loss.