Mar 032013
 

It’s been a while since I posted, I’ve had a lot going on.  Our son was born at the end of December and so that kept us very busy in January.  I was very fortunate that my client didn’t renew my contract for 2013 and that gave me extra family time.

Trading wise, things weren’t so good.  I had done well Oct – Dec trading just the last 2 hours.  My main “setup” was just to enter on a pullback and look for a new high or low into the close.  And it worked well.  I thought if I could make x pts in 2 hours/day then if I traded 8-10 hours/day I could make 4x.  I was a bit naïf but it was worth a shot.  I thought if it worked then maybe I could take more time off from consulting and spend it with the family.  But that wasn’t to be.  I ended up +2 pts for January and if we count commissions I was pretty much zero.  Sometimes less is more.

The first challenge was trading the European session, which I had not traded in over 6 months.   There was just no volatility in ES, as I pointed out in a blog post that month.  Then in the US morning, I wasn’t sure how to handle the open.  Actually I was lost.  I had been used to seeing how the morning & lunch periods played out and use that as my guide for the last 2 hours.  Trading the open was like flying blind.  And I got chopped up.  And I couldn’t trade the last 2 hours because we were very busy taking care of the kids & baby, and going to bed early so we could get up every 3 hours all night.

At the end of January I was convinced that I could do much better consulting and started interviewing.  I was fortunate to get two offers and picked a system architect assignment for a major construction company.   I started mid-February.  My trading for the first half of February was slightly negative.  I was losing confidence and was even skipping trading to spend more time with family (while it lasted).

When I started my new job I didn’t trade since I was already very occupied.  It was nice to take a few weeks off.  I didn’t even have my charts running.  I intended to trade again last week but our 2 month old son got really sick with respiratory infection and had to go to the hospital.  He was in intensive care all day Wednesday and Thursday and that really changed my perspective on things.  Suddenly nothing else was important.  We spoke to other parents whose kids were in intensive care too.  There was a girl in a coma and a 6 month old boy who had meningitis.  They had the boy asleep until Sunday (this was Wednesday) and his mom said they wouldn’t know if he had brain damage until they woke him up.  Wow, our little boy only had a lung infection.  That really put things into perspective.  And family time became a lot more important to me.  I was very thankful for everything we have.

So last week made 3 weeks on the new job and 3 weeks without trading.  My goal now is to get back into the last 2 hour trading mentality.  I will do my levels when I get home, set audio/email alerts, and spend time with the family.  If I get an alert I’ll come to my PC and look for an entry.  And if I miss it, no big deal.  Hopefully I’ll catch a few winners.  I’ll let you know how it goes.

 

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Jan 222013
 

I haven’t been able to update the blog much, the baby has kept us very busy and I’ve been working on finding my next consulting assignment.  I have an interview on Thursday with a company in the financial sector.  My mention of trading & finance on my CV has peaked the client’s interest.  So it will be an interesting interview.

My trading has not been as good as I hoped.  I realized that what I was doing in the last 1-2 hours is not easy to transfer to Globex & the US morning session.  As a result I’m slightly above breakeven and that’s very disappointing.  I was hoping to take my 1 pt/day average and double or triple it since I was going to trade 3 times as much.  And that just isn’t happening.  Globex volatility is very low so now I’m not even looking at the markets during Globex.  Watching them all day zaps my energy and results in decision fatigue.

The US morning is a bit crazy.  I’m used to seeing how the day is playing out and going for a pullback for continuation into the close.  That strategy works well for the last 2 hours, but not in the morning session.  And all this reinforces my decision to do consulting full time and trade the last 1-2 hours.

Before I forget, the subject of this post is the financial transaction tax.  I just read an article on CNBC and it doesn’t sound good.  This tax is going ahead.  And it will be 0.01%.  That would be $14.79 round-trip for trading 1 ES lot.  That is 3.5 times more than the commission.  The tax will be due if either buyer or seller are in the EU.   In my opinion this will kill day trading.   At least for me.  The only way I see to be able to trade with this is to go for really big wins where the tax becomes a smaller percentage of the overall expectancy.  And even then, it will be very difficult to do.

We still consider moving to the US or Canada, not because of the tax but just for a change in lifestyle.  And that is one partial solution.  And maybe the tax will fall through.  The UK is threatening leaving the Euro zone, and they should.   So there is still a lot of uncertainty but we also have time before it’s in place.

 

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Jan 082013
 

Globex has been super quiet since I’ve been home for the holidays.  I’ve sat in Globex trades for hours.  This is quite unusual for me, when I was last trading Globex, about 6 months ago, it was much more volatile and good for trading.  Now it’s fire and forget, and check back after lunch.  I got long at yesterday’s low and held for 1.5 hours.  I held through a zenfire disconnect (more on that below) and it was up to Euro unemployment numbers and my wife wanting me to take her out to lunch, so I bailed for +1.50 pts.  I was going for 3.  A bit frustrating to see it not move more.

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Next, Ninja has a very serious bug.  Certain network interrupts (and unfortunately my ISP seems to have these several times a day) make it lose its connection with zenfire and the only solution is to restart Ninja or wait 30 minutes.  I can’t restart Ninja because Ninja is incapable of redownloading historical bid/ask data (like IRT & MD do so well), so I have to wait 30 minutes.  It’s frustrating to be in a position and not be able to move my stop or get out for 30 minutes.  Ninja will fix it only in the next major release.  I last reported this 6 months ago and we’re still waiting.  Maybe it’ll be fixed in Ninjatrader 8.0 sometime in 2014?

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For those suffering from the same problem, you can voice your support for a fix in this thread.

Well 1.50 pts.  That’ll cover lunch and gas.

 

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